If we assume 3,200 transactions per block, and we assume every transaction is a Lightning channel open/close/swap in, and that every LN node has one of these per week, there is enough for blockspace for some 3.2 million operating lightning nodes. If we assume those nodes bank the entire world, then they will on average bank 2,325 different individuals.

Even if we assume Pareto principle where 20% of these custodians bank 80% of people, the remaining 80% will still on average bank hundreds of people.

With such limited capacity, I struggle to imagine a world where Bitcoin’s future is not co-opted by the chokeable necks of these many, many custodians.

I would love to hear solutions to this issue. Side chains are something I know little about. But, for example, torrents still absolutely exist and do easily and quickly distribute every single one of the movies in the world with a few simply clicks, and yet everyone still has a Netflix account. And a number of other accounts. These official apps manage to be just that much more convenient.

I fear the same will happen for Bitcoin. But I’m happy to be reasoned out of this worry.