Subnostr

If we assume 3,200 transactions per block, and we assume every transaction is a Lightning channel open/close/swap in, and that every LN node has one of these per week, there is enough for blockspace for some 3.2 million operating lightning nodes. If we assume those nodes bank the entire world, then they will on average bank 2,325 different individuals.

Even if we assume Pareto principle where 20% of these custodians bank 80% of people, the remaining 80% will still on average bank hundreds of people.

With such limited capacity, I struggle to imagine a world where Bitcoin’s future is not co-opted by the chokeable necks of these many, many custodians.

I would love to hear solutions to this issue. Side chains are something I know little about. But, for example, torrents still absolutely exist and do easily and quickly distribute every single one of the movies in the world with a few simply clicks, and yet everyone still has a Netflix account. And a number of other accounts. These official apps manage to be just that much more convenient.

I fear the same will happen for Bitcoin. But I’m happy to be reasoned out of this worry.

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Discussion

[ARCHIVED] Jay 2y ago

Stressing the blockchain and stressing lightning channels will eventually lead someone to come up with an ingenious workaround as things get harder to use.

I think a lot of people will use trusted third parties to handle their Bitcoin in a third-layer method. There will be rugpull risk in the beginning, but people will wise up to how Bitcoin works. Custodians will be forced to give access to 1st and 2nd layer withdrawal or immediate transfer to another custodian because there's no excuse not to.

mark tyler 2y ago

I wonder what would happen if torrents were legal

nobody 2y ago

I’d still sub to services. Dicking around with rips gets old after a while. I had my plex server phase. I’m over it.

Dimi 2y ago

What tf is after plex

nobody 2y ago

Max and Netflix. You just go back to Max and Netflix.

I even bought the right drive to use LibreDrive and ripped my own movies in addition to some warez. Still a PITA.

Dimi 2y ago

Well that’s disappointing 💔

mrclownworld 2y ago

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mrclownworld 2y ago

Yeah but now you just need to go to vidsrc . me / embed / [imdb title number] to start streaming instantly though, and the file is the exact same one they stream you on their official services

mark tyler 2y ago

Do the creators have ln addresses yet so I can zap them? 😆

mrclownworld 2y ago

They will eventually and it will be glorious

techfeudalist 2y ago

The unfortunate reality, I think, is that bitcoin will be custodial for most people. Fast forward a few years when a bitcoin is over $100 million with billions of users. L1 transaction fees, for limited block space, will be extremely expensive. It’s inevitable that typical users will be unable to transact in L1. L1 will be used mostly by countries and L2s.

I don’t view this as a problem because we’ll have additional L2s and L3s. Like Liquid, these solutions will have privacy and you’ll be able to freely move your funds to whatever system works best for you.

Lightning could very well be the system that most custodians and large companies use to transact with each other.

The bottom line is that the bitcoin network will continue to evolve and more solutions will be invented in time.

mrclownworld 2y ago

Countries and big companies are the ones who currently collude to tax 50% of every fucking dollar we earn, so if we have to go through them to use our money, we’re all fucked

techfeudalist 2y ago

You’ll be able to use whatever system you want. It’s all a big marketplace. No monopolies. Nobody can prevent someone from creating a competitive option.

mrclownworld 2y ago

I hope you’re right. I hope there will be a system I can use that they cannot co-opt.

nicnym 2y ago

Maybe you should sell all your Bitcoin or do your own research work bro

mrclownworld 2y ago

My you’re a helpful guy. Tell me more.

Zach⚡️ 2y ago

I wouldn’t exactly consider 3.2 Million independent custodians “chokeable necks”. Maybe if it’s a hydra you’re choking 🤣 but your point is well taken.

I’m excited to see the introduction and evolution of lightning enabled fedimints.

mrclownworld 2y ago

No, you’re right, I totally agree, it’s an order of magnitude better than the truly evil and insane current system. I just worry that fedimints might be able to evade regulation if they serve 10-50, *maybe* up to 100 people. Realizing they will need to serve hundreds or even thousands to function worries me.

Like, for example, my family is members of a club that has owned the same spot of real estate since the 1890s and they have managed to be grandfathered in at all these different levels to do what they do, because they’re a bona fide private club that does not ever rent to the public. But they have dozens of members, not hundreds, and the zoning regulations make this sort of thing way harder if not impossible to set up in the modern day (or else you’d see more of them). I could see a fedimint working perfectly for this group.

Now that I say it though, they have maybe 25 members who have their own families… there are probably a couple hundred people who could bank with the club if they chose to offer it.

Damn, if social clubs and churches and such could become non-profit banks… ok I’ve just talked myself into being incredibly bullish on this future.

A Bitcoin co-op. That actually sounds incredible.

Jeff Swann 2y ago

As things stand right now, people could theoretically be onboarded to the Lightning network in a non-custodial manner via the Liquid federated sidechain which has like 10x the block capacity of Bitcoin & can be changed much more easily. That alone is far better than any sort of less transparent custodial relationship. And even better is that BitVM seems to make trustless two way pegs possible, which means Liquid could potentially be made much more trustless & we will likely get all sorts of sidechain solutions, which will probably just be linked together via LN. Scaling seems like much less of an issue now than it ever has, it's just a matter of making use of all the tools currently available. There are Bitcoin Audible episodes covering a lot of scalling ideas.

mrclownworld 2y ago

This is all fascinating and helpful, thank you. I’m just so hoping for that Sovereign Individual future where governments have to compete and lower taxes to attract capital… our children deserve that future and I hope we can deliver.

Jeff Swann 2y ago

I think freedom is going to be available to the people who really want it. Unfortunately, I'm so not sure everyone does.

mrclownworld 2y ago

That’s always a problem. But my worry is freedom will be too expensive for most, and that might negatively impact even the free ones.

Jeff Swann 2y ago

I think freedom will be far less expensive, in basically every way, than allegiance to any State. But States will make it seem scary or difficult & try to create all sorts of lock in so that people cannot leave with anything they have.

mrclownworld 2y ago

But if non-custodial Bitcoin is too expensive, then the doors are already locked for those people. I think we agree some will be in this boat, I think I’m just starting to realize it will be more people doomed than I thought.

Jeff Swann 2y ago

I don't think non-custodial solutions are going to be too expensive. Like I said the building blocks for proper scaling are already there & from the rumors I have heard even some of the newest ones are already being put to use in major projects.

mrclownworld 2y ago

This is what I was hoping to hear writing the post. Thanks for the optimistic info 🙏