Nostr Web Client

Whenever talking chances or odds or probabilities, zero is never the right answer. Some vanishingly small number sure, not zero.

>“China could completely level the island with bombs, yes. But as the successive military failures of the US have proven, that doesn't put boots on the ground and create a new regime.”

This is closer to what I was thinking but still not really what I was getting at.

Forget about China bankrupting themselves.

They could bankrupt the US, and it wouldn’t have to be a full scale invasion. If they can control/destroy TSMC that would suffice and the knock on effects would be enormous.

I don’t think the odds are high of this happening, but it’s definitely not zero and Biden being removed would be an opportunity that would increase the odds for them to operate in a moment of chaos.

hh 1y ago

I said zero because you framed the time as between now and the election, with a hypothetical removal of Biden (which I think is very likely, yes). In this frame, I'm quite confident with "zero".

You don't just wake up one morning in Beijing and say, ok today we invade Taiwan because the old boy is out. It just doesn't work like that. It's not physically or logistically possible. Hence, zero probability.

Even bombing and destroying TSCM is not something you just "do". It would require full war preparations that take a lot longer than the time you've given. Because even if Xi used covert or black ops, everybody would know it had been him and the consequences would be immediate.

If you said in 5 years, I would give an extremely low but non-zero probability. And as we go further into the future and start to introduce unknowns like a hypothetical successor for Xi, or any other number of things, the odds may increase.

Specifically, I think the most important factor is the US developing its own SC capabilities at home. THAT would increase the odds of an attack or even an invasion drastically, but still long term.

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

Nyoro~n 1y ago

My non-zero scenario puts us closer to next century 🤭 I'd point out that even the US avoided invading Taiwan during WWII, and it has only gotten more difficult (literally everything is reinforced concrete)

I appreciate anyone giving a shit about Taiwan, truly 🥳 it'd be nice to talk about our wonderful island without bringing up our silly neighbors

Do consider visiting!

Beneath The Ink 1y ago

I'll visit one day.

I took 3 years of Mandarin and decided to go to China to practice. I don't regret it, It was truly beautiful and being there for as long as I was I find it hard to believe its changed as much as it has (that's what the media says). I'm dying to to visit Taiwan, Singapore, and all the Mandarin speaking countries.

hh 1y ago

I first visited Taiwan 20 years ago when I was studying in Tokyo. Went with my Japanese flatmate, landed in Taipei, rented bikes, and ended up in Kenting. After that I learnt Mandarin and lived and worked in China for a while, then five years in Singapore. Been to Taiwan many times since, and it's still one of my favorites places in Asia second only to Japan. The shit they have to put with, including the catastrophe that the landing of the KMT with one million mainlanders in the Taipei metro area, is phenomenal. I probably wouldn't.

hh 1y ago

By the way, in Taiwan, let's be polite and if you want to be there long term, try to learn at least Min-nan/Hokkien or who knows, maybe even Hakka. Still goes a long way in Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines nowadays (and obviously in Fujian in China).