Markets in January

January is in the books and has brought the following result: the commodity complex of Bitcoin, gold and some metals and agricultural commodities has performed best so far.

While a trade conflict initiated by the US government with Canada, Mexico and the European Union over tariffs is now looming, we are seeing better liquidity conditions globally thanks to a slowly turning US dollar and falling interest rates on key bonds (disinflation). This will be crucial over the course of the year to roll the growing global debt mountain into the future, much of which is denominated in dollars.

For the US, the tariffs appear to be compensation for the abolition of the federal income tax. This could see the country return to a fiscal regime that prevailed before the Roosevelt reforms.

In the short term, it looks as if the global money supply M2 will also turn upwards again thanks to a boost from the United States, which means that the credit mechanism within the business cycle is now stabilizing again.

We can continue to expect the markets to follow a 'wall of worry' and benefit from the growing liquidity.

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