bitcoin outgrew the retail 4 year cycle story. it now acts as a global liquidity valve that only happened to line up with a 4 yr rhythm in the last three halvings. that pattern’s gone. from now on it sniffs out liquidity first and reacts in both directions. as new coin production keeps shrinking in the coming yrs, that barometer only gets sharper at measuring global liquidity.
Discussion
Indeed 🧡✨
Thanks. I’d only gotten as far as the first sentence. 😂 much appreciation 🤟🏻🤙🫂
The 4 year cycle was a borderline insane concept. It is the single most predictable event (halving) in the entire economic world, and yet somehow the market reacts to it ... in real time?
What does "global liquidity valve" mean? Is it something like: when people have excess cash, they buy bitcoin; when they need cash, they sell bitcoin?
more like a real time price signal for the marginal cost of capital across the entire global financial system. in other words when systemwide liquidity expands, bitcoinn is usually the first asset to reprice because it has no cash flows no valuation anchors no regulatory capital constraints and extremely high reflexivity.
No one knows what it means, but it's provocative....It gets the people going!
If you want it simplified then yeah, pretty much! But it’s less about people with cash.
Global liquidity valve just means that bitcoin reacts first and fastest when money becomes easier or harder to get in the world.
When money is easy, BTC jumps early.
When money is tight, BTC drops early.
So it’s like an early warning indicator for the rest of the financial system.
Not because people individually have extra cash, but because the whole system does.
Agree and the life to date price chart supports that conclusion
Bring it on!
Lol, what do you mean? It followed the bitcoin halving cycle like clockwork.
Bitcoin just learned to breathe with the world.