Well I don't think I have derangement syndrome, but I am very cautious about it. Maybe another digital currency is the future, but I don't see how BTC itself has legs in the long term. Technology quickly gets antiquated.
Discussion
Apropos of nothing, I used to like a song called Bitcoin Beezy. The final line of the chorus is something like “I’ve got 50 Bitcoin worth about a hundred grand” in the outro one the artists expresses a similar sentiment to the one you’ve expressed here so my guess is that, if they actually had the coin, they sold. Today that stack is worth around 4.5 million.
It's more than just a technology, it's a protocol and protocols are winner take all.
Technology and protocols alike get surpassed.
Let me know when the next best internet comes along. There's zero incentive to switch to something new when we've spent the last 30 years building the internet infrastructure. Do you think miners will just throw aways billions in hardware just to try something new?
In your analogy, " the internet" would be digital currencies while Bitcoin itself would be something like SSL or http. Absolutely Bitcoin can become antiquated. You'd be wise to keep your antenna up for the next big thing, or your money could go to zero.
Keep an eye out for the next globally connected network. Your computer might turn into a brick.
Quick reminder that the “current established bitcoin” (core v30 majority) allows arbitrary non-monetary data up to 100kb to be appended into the chain. People are debating this, and a fork may arise as an attempt to change the system. So yes, you better keep an eye out, because if your only motto is “bitcoin will always rule” you will end up inside an outdated system.
We are using nostr, which serves as a proof that there are indeed incentives to change to something new from an already existing infrastructure. Bitcoin is the first of its kind and has been proven resilient, but in the end anything can happen and every system has to adapt itself, no matter how established.
Network effect makes it impossible to catch now.
The breakthroughs were solving byzantines generals problem and difficulty adjustment. This breakthrough can only be copied, not “bettered”
"Network effect makes it impossible to catch now. " - That is a completely arbitrary assertion. Cash had network effect, now it doesn't.
All it takes is for something new to come along. And in digital technology's case, that can come quickly.
the networking of Nakamoto Consensus; the solution to the Byzantine Generals Problem (the key breakthrough of bitcoin) cannot be caught. It is the only network in history that (still) does this. extremely powerful computers are designed specifically to do this task and this task only. That compute load (that pegs the money and the network to energy) won’t be redirected elsewhere because it can’t be.
So it's not about network effect any more now that it's been pointed out that cash had network effect until it didn't?
As for Nakamoto Consensus ... Bitcoin isn't even private, the government can trace your BTC and blacklist it from being spent. Or maybe they'll confiscate it. This is one possible example of future use-cases making Bitcoin antiquated.
All technology gets antiquated as time change. Bitcoin is not shielded from technological advancements.