Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Ending? Impact of Institutional Adoption with Historical Data

Bitcoin has historically exhibited approximately 4-year cycles, anchored by the halving, when the reward per mined block is reduced by 50%. This directly affects the network's monetary inflation:

2012 → Reward dropped from 50 BTC to 25 BTC → Price went from ~US$12 to ~US$1,150 (+9,480%).

2016 → Reward dropped from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC → Price went from ~US$650 to ~US$20,000 (+2,976%).

2020 → Reward dropped from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC → Price went from ~US$8,800 to ~US$69,000 (+684%).

This pattern created the so-called "4-year cycle," where price peaks occur 12–18 months after the halving, followed by corrections of 70%–85% before further accumulation.

Current structural change:

Starting in 2021, the entry of large institutions and regulated products such as spot ETFs (launched in 2024) brought a long-term demand that differed from speculative retail demand. Data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant indicate:

More than 1.2 million BTC are held in custody by ETFs, listed companies, and governments (approx. 6% of the total supply).

Large OTC purchases reduce selling pressure in the spot market.

BTC balances on exchanges are at their lowest level since 2018 (~2.3 million BTC), reducing liquidity.

Possible effects on the cycle:

Smaller corrections (perhaps 30%–50%, instead of 70%–85%).

Absence of prolonged declines (classic bear markets), with more sideways phases.

Less predictable tops and bottoms, diluting the "halving pattern."

In short, although the halving remains a structural supply trigger, the weight of institutional and government demand could transform Bitcoin into an asset that behaves more like a strategic commodity like gold, with longer and smoother cycles.