Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle Ending? Impact of Institutional Adoption with Historical Data

Bitcoin has historically exhibited approximately 4-year cycles, anchored by the halving, when the reward per mined block is reduced by 50%. This directly affects the network's monetary inflation:

2012 → Reward dropped from 50 BTC to 25 BTC → Price went from ~US$12 to ~US$1,150 (+9,480%).

2016 → Reward dropped from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC → Price went from ~US$650 to ~US$20,000 (+2,976%).

2020 → Reward dropped from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC → Price went from ~US$8,800 to ~US$69,000 (+684%).

This pattern created the so-called "4-year cycle," where price peaks occur 12–18 months after the halving, followed by corrections of 70%–85% before further accumulation.

Current structural change:

Starting in 2021, the entry of large institutions and regulated products such as spot ETFs (launched in 2024) brought a long-term demand that differed from speculative retail demand. Data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant indicate:

More than 1.2 million BTC are held in custody by ETFs, listed companies, and governments (approx. 6% of the total supply).

Large OTC purchases reduce selling pressure in the spot market.

BTC balances on exchanges are at their lowest level since 2018 (~2.3 million BTC), reducing liquidity.

Possible effects on the cycle:

Smaller corrections (perhaps 30%–50%, instead of 70%–85%).

Absence of prolonged declines (classic bear markets), with more sideways phases.

Less predictable tops and bottoms, diluting the "halving pattern."

In short, although the halving remains a structural supply trigger, the weight of institutional and government demand could transform Bitcoin into an asset that behaves more like a strategic commodity like gold, with longer and smoother cycles.

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Institutions Buying 10x More Bitcoin Than the Network Mines Daily

Recent cryptocurrency market analyses indicate that institutional demand for Bitcoin exceeds the daily supply produced by the mining network by up to ten times. Currently, the Bitcoin network generates approximately 900 BTC per day, resulting from block rewards mined (Glassnode, 2025). At the same time, data from large custodians and funds indicate institutional purchases of around 9,000 BTC daily, highlighting a significant imbalance between supply and demand in the market.

This implies a sharp reduction in the volume available for trading in the spot market, intensifying the asset's scarcity and aiming to drive its price to higher levels. This dynamic confirms the growing influence of financial institutions in the crypto market, signaling not only mass adoption but also a structural change in Bitcoin's liquidity and price formation.

Given this scenario, the question remains: how will the continued institutional uptake of Bitcoin, far beyond the network's generation capacity, impact volatility and Bitcoin's role in the structure of global financial markets?