Asked a financial advisor friend recently what they assume for real returns in their typical portfolio (think 60/40) - he said 6%.

I asked if someone allocated 10% of that portfolio to #Bitcoin ETFs, what would the expected real return be.

He looked me dead in the guy, didn't even smile, and just said "Oh, still 6%. We just kind of assume that is about what you're going to get."

Even if he'd said something like 3% because they believed bitcoin would underperform, I'd have taken that as a real answer. But to blindly say "6% is what you get regardless of the bucket of assets you invest in" is beyond a disservice.

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Yes and no.

The entire point of diversification is that it smooths out returns.

If he has a global 60/40 mix, that 6% assumption just takes into account the assumption of price movements.

BTC is fully correlated to SPX, it just has a beta of like 2.5 or something.

He said they run it this way over any time frame (which Bitcoin will certainly break at higher adoption), but point stands either way. The if that 10% is taken from stocks vs bonds are two very different things.

Short term I hear you though