The 2023 banking crisis has now officially surpassed the 2008 financial collapse in scale (noting we’re still in the first half of the year), with major regional lenders like PacWest and First Republic collapsing in quick succession. Despite assurances from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the U.S. banking system is sound and resilient, it appears that the situation is far from under control.
Drawing from Austrian economics and 2008 facts, it is important to note that the early collapses in a financial crisis are often just the beginning. In 2008, the failure of 25 U.S. banks was followed by a staggering 440 bank collapses over the next four years, a rate of 110 per year compared to just two per year prior to the crisis. With the current crisis unfolding at an alarming pace, it seems that the worst is yet to come.
One key factor in this crisis is that the effects of interest rate hikes usually take 12 to 18 months to significantly impact the economy. As we are only six months into the rate hikes, it appears that the true storm is yet to hit, with the current situation representing only the first breezes of an oncoming hurricane.
Moreover, European banks are also facing serious trouble, as they are dealing with the same problems as their U.S. counterparts due to the European Central Bank following a similar playbook. Ifact, European banks are even more vulnerable, as they are almost twice as large relative to their economies compared to the U.S. banks. During the 2008 crisis, the financial collapse in the United States led to a domino effect that ultimately resulted in a sovereign crisis in Europe, affecting countries like Greece, which have never fully recovered.
Current EU financial stresses are even higher than in 2008, partly due to their environmental and de-industrialization policies. As such, Europe could once again find itself on the brink of disaster as a result of the current U.S. financial crisis. Ernest Hemingway once wrote in his book “The Sun Also Rises” that there are two ways to go bankrupt: gradually and then suddenly. It seems that the pace of "suddenly" is accelerating in the current crisis, with potentially dire consequences for the global economy.
The dominos won’t stop falling.
#Bitcoin is the only exit.
#plebchain #nostr
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