your original post said Bitcoin. Now this is turning into lightning. If Wallet of Satoshi was found to be blocking nodes, people would flock awy from Wallet of Satoshi and run their own node too.

You are still learning about decentralization i see.

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Sure, because people really ran away from censoring platforms... Right? Right?

Nope. 99% ofpeople will comply and choose convenience

as long as me and the rest of the 1% do, then thats all that matters.

we will open LN channels with eachother only. This is getting silly.

Sure 1% of people can also run mail servers and email each other. That does not make email "open and decentralized" in practice.

Your analogies are wild. Running an email server and downloading an app on your phone that runs your lightning node are not even comparable in terms of convenience.

You know what is even more convenient than running a node on your phone? Using a custodial app which 99% of people do.

How did you come up with the 99% number?

WoS has 500k+ downloads on playstore

Phoenix wallet has 50k+ on playstore

Muun wallet has 100k+ on playstore

Nostr is just 6 months old and to assume that zaps make up most of lightning transactions is ridiculous.

Nostr is not 6 months old. Maybe for you.

Sampling actual usage from zaps is much more insightful than looking at gameable "download counts" from play store.

I've shown you the ugly reality and now you are just making up excuses and coping. Accept it and fight it instead.

Zaps on posts were introduced in feb 2023 in nip-57.

You are assuming all of lightning is just zaps which is complete BS.

You have shown no substantial evidence to support your argument that 99% of lightning users do/will use custodial wallets. Pointing statistics from a sample that is not even close to being representative of the population is just being willfully ignorant to prove your point.

Statistics will never be perfect. I've shown you the best that AFAIK is publicly available. You chose to dismiss it since it does not suite your fairytale narrative.

LN volume outside nostr zaps is fairly negligible. Just check publicly available stats from popular merchants like bitrefill and you see that LN is under 2% of their volume.

https://nostrcheck.me/media/public/nostrcheck.me_1198146285801260701689868989.webp

Your cherrypicked examples for supporting your argument are not working. Let me just put use cases of lightning outside zaps in front of you just to give you some much needed perspective

Not to mention thw number of centralised exchanges that support ligjdning withdrawals now

So more custodians and centralized exchanges investing in LN is supposed to support your argument that LN is not getting centralized?

It isn’t but it debunks your claim that “LN volume outside zaps is fairly negligible”

On LN centralization I am on the fence and I haven’t seen any evidence to support it. Your evidence is based on nostr only when there are is a substantial user base outside nostr

Fair enough

the majority of people will use custodial wallets for the foreseeable future for two reasons..

1) people are lazy

2) it’s the paradigm they understand

For the same reasons people keep bitcoin on exchanges and yet exchange balance is at an all time low

ATL but they still hold the majority chunk by quite a margin

Good discussion though

*the *lightning

While I would never try and place a percentage on the possibility of such an outcome. You're definitely not far off! 😅 Human laziness never ceases to amaze me. Lol! And not in a good way!