Replying to Avatar Aníbal Santaella

Error trend analysis (Eras 2–4): Linear regression predicts -20% error for Era 5.

That means the raw projection ($138,000) could underestimate possible ATH: $172,500 if the uptrend holds.

Era 5's still cooking (as of Oct 2025), halving magic at work?

#BSMVModel
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Aníbal Santaella 3mo ago

Strengths: Intuitive, ties straight to Bitcoin's supply shock. Errors drop as market matures (from -95% to -43%).

Weaknesses: Ignores fees (big in later eras) & externals like ETFs/regulation. But it's a killer baseline for halving hype.

Refinements in the paper, let's build on it!

#BSMVModel

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