The amount of bitcoin mined in each block is also the percentage of the total supply that will be mined during that era.
50 Btc
10,500,000 Btc
50%
25 Btc
5,250,000 Btc
25%
12.5 Btc
2,625,000 Btc
12.5%
6.25 Btc
1,312,500 Btc
6.25%
3.125 Btc
656,250 Btc
3.125%
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#BSMVModel
Read the full white paper: methodology, data, projections, & future tweaks (e.g., adding fees)👇🏻
linktr.ee/AnibalSantaella
Authored by me, Anibal Santaella. Feedback welcome.
#BSMVModel
Why now?
Era 5's ATH hit $125,670 (Oct 2025), but the uptrend's alive. BSMV shows halvings could push it higher $172K possible if history rhymes.
For researchers/investors: A fresh lens on scarcity without the S2F noise.
Thoughts…?
#BSMVModel
Strengths: Intuitive, ties straight to Bitcoin's supply shock. Errors drop as market matures (from -95% to -43%).
Weaknesses: Ignores fees (big in later eras) & externals like ETFs/regulation. But it's a killer baseline for halving hype.
Refinements in the paper, let's build on it!
#BSMVModel
Error trend analysis (Eras 2–4): Linear regression predicts -20% error for Era 5.
That means the raw projection ($138,000) could underestimate possible ATH: $172,500 if the uptrend holds.
Era 5's still cooking (as of Oct 2025), halving magic at work?
#BSMVModel
Historical backtest:
- Era 2 proj: $63.80 (actual: $1,242) → -95% error (early volatility!)
- Era 3: $2,484 (actual: $19,783) → -87%
- Era 4: $39,566 (actual: $69,000) → -43%
Errors shrinking…model shines in mature markets!
#BSMVModel
The BSMV Model is dead simple:
BSMV_n = Block Subsidy_n × ATH_n
Then, ATH_{n+1} = BSMV_n / Block Subsidy_{n+1}
It captures scarcity from halvings, lower subsidy means higher price to keep miner incentives steady. Perfect for understanding Era 5's ongoing rally.
#BSMVModel
Ever wondered how Bitcoin's halvings really drive price peaks?
I've developed a simple model: the Block Subsidy Maximum Value (BSMV), projecting ATHs by assuming the USD value of the subsidy stays constant across eras.
No fluff, just halving math. Check out my white paper!
#BSMVModel
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Bitcoin doesn't care about the Triffin Dilemma because it can't print more.
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#Bitcoin is the only asset with a truly limited supply, yet capable of storing unlimited value.
The satoshi represents the fundamental unit within the #Bitcoin protocol; at its core, Bitcoin’s code operates exclusively with satoshis. Hence, rather than stating ‘Bitcoin is highly divisible,’ it would be more accurate to assert that ‘Satoshis are highly aggregable.’
Quantitative easing = counterfeiting
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It’s not about women doing what men can do–it’s about women embracing their uniqueness to achieve what men can’t, and vice versa. Empowerment comes from recognising and enhancing our differences.
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Bitcoin bridges ideologies and perspectives.
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