Historical backtest:
- Era 2 proj: $63.80 (actual: $1,242) → -95% error (early volatility!)
- Era 3: $2,484 (actual: $19,783) → -87%
- Era 4: $39,566 (actual: $69,000) → -43%
Errors shrinking…model shines in mature markets!
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Discussion
Error trend analysis (Eras 2–4): Linear regression predicts -20% error for Era 5.
That means the raw projection ($138,000) could underestimate possible ATH: $172,500 if the uptrend holds.
Era 5's still cooking (as of Oct 2025), halving magic at work?
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Strengths: Intuitive, ties straight to Bitcoin's supply shock. Errors drop as market matures (from -95% to -43%).
Weaknesses: Ignores fees (big in later eras) & externals like ETFs/regulation. But it's a killer baseline for halving hype.
Refinements in the paper, let's build on it!
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Why now?
Era 5's ATH hit $125,670 (Oct 2025), but the uptrend's alive. BSMV shows halvings could push it higher $172K possible if history rhymes.
For researchers/investors: A fresh lens on scarcity without the S2F noise.
Thoughts…?
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Read the full white paper: methodology, data, projections, & future tweaks (e.g., adding fees)👇🏻
linktr.ee/AnibalSantaella
Authored by me, Anibal Santaella. Feedback welcome.
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