Once you start to research the financial system, it really humbles you.
You have to start questioning everything you think you know.
The official narrative story often diverges from reality.
For example, the real cycle is Debt/Liquidity, not Debt/GDP.
Almost every "crisis" is: not enough liquidity, at the right points in the plumbing, to roll the existing debt at a politically tolerable price.
- "Too much liquidity vs debt" → bubbles.
- "Too much debt vs liquidity" → refinancing crisis.
In other words, they inflate the currency at will and rug-pull at will.
Richard Werner did a good job of illustrating this with his book and documentary "Princes of the Yen" ( https://odysee.com/@Reachthedivine:d/Princes-of-the-Yen---The-Hidden-Power-of-Central-Banks_fixed-2014:e ), where he documents how the banking cartel allowed Japanese, South Koreans, etc, to lever up with credit (caused inflation), then intentionally pulled liquidity and rug-pulled everyone into a depression.
Think of the global system as a giant refinancing conveyor belt:
- The belt carries maturing obligations (bonds, loans, repos, margin).
- The operators can spray liquidity foam (reserves, facilities, swap lines, fiscal deficits, regulatory relief) to keep things rolling.
- If they over-spray, everything slides too easily → bubbles.
- If they under-spray, some pile of debt sticks, catches fire, and they have to choose who burns.
Debt/Liquidity = how well that belt runs at any given time.
Debt/GDP is the fake, official narrative story (it is stock vs flow), whereas Debt/Liquidity is about timing and plumbing.
Every financial crisis is basically a roll failure (not enough liquidity to roll the existing debt at tolerable prices).
They can under-inject liquidity by however much they want, whenever they want, to rug-pull whoever they want and bail out whoever they want.
Each Debt/Liquidity cycle is another Hegelian loop:
- Problem: refi wall + under-injection of liquidity → crisis.
- Reaction: fear, political pressure.
- Solution: more centralized rails (CBDCs, ID, Palantir-style governance OS, tighter collateral rules).
We're basically playing a game we can't win and have been for a very long time.
If you think in Debt/Liquidity terms, "macro" stops being a blur and becomes a timing overlay on top of a very stable structural direction: more debt, more crises, more patches, more rails.
Michael Howell does a good job of illustrating the Debt/Liquidity relationship with this chart.
- "Too much liquidity vs debt" → bubbles.
- "Too much debt vs liquidity" → refinancing crisis.
https://blossom.primal.net/fa34c7f072e6571c7cd9cb18b08e5459caf019e2cb0d790e849249b429f050c4.webp
