the thing is, not selling, is an act of faith, that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as long as the number of hodlers, and their sum of holdings, continues to grow, pushing the pressure on demand and thus continuing to raise the price.
IMO, this is quite a delicate situation when the enemies start to really get involved with their degenerate babylon fiat system mindset. i personally am downgrading my expectation to not see much better than maybe 150k in the next bull season, which is likely to be this winter.
still better than USD but as the differential starts to narrow, the risk of mass defection (liquidating hodlers) is quite serious, especially if your stack has an age under months average.
on the other hand, i do think that such a mass defection is at least 6 years away.
the seeming exponential rate tracks with the typical network effect of technology adoption. the more who hold it shorter terms and short it more than hodl, will eventually break the mexican standoff.
there is also other issues relating to the centralization of control in governments leaning on the big miners. already 41% is concentrated in two companies, both of them registered in the USA. you know what happens if US corporate registered miners reach 51% hashpower. the only thing that is probably going to slow it down is it's about 10 years before all the work happening now to reverse the trend of declining power generation capacity starts to yield, and right now, AI is burning more KW than bitcoin mining, and by jevon's paradox, even if they cut the power cost of these LLM farms down to 10% of now, the share it takes will continue to grow.
but if they make a strategic pivot and start to really try to grab the 51% hashpower share, and exert influence on protocol governance to make it into a defacto CDBC, it's over for the hodl narrative. russia and china are not joining the game, so unless they do, i don't see a bright future 2 halvings down the track, and it will dim steadily up to that point.
fiat doesn't care about hard money, and hate hard money, and will do everything they can to turn bitcoin into fiat.
we have time to brace against that though, many ways that might work. IMO nostr's simple network architecture will open up things in distributed monetary system networks that nobody would have expected over the next 8 years. every time i use alby go i'm reminded that this would never have been possible without nostr.