TL;DR

→ Is Bitcoin's price rise (NGU technology) baked into its DNA?

→ Is it just macro liquidity chasing a speculative asset?

It's a little bit of both!!!

.........................................................................................................................................

I ran the numbers. I tortured the data. I optimized for truth.

R² = 0.964823

That means ~96.5% of Bitcoin's price behavior can be explained by just two things:

Stock-to-Flow (hardwired supply schedule)

Global M2 Liquidity

People love to argue whether Bitcoin's price rises are inevitable or just lucky timing.

I asked a better question:

How close can I come to proving Bitcoin's NGU is hardwired?

What I did:

Started with classic Stock-to-Flow (S2F) → supply-driven scarcity

Shifted from BTC price to Market Cap → better reflection of total valuation

Realized market psychology lags reality → applied a 8-week lag to changes in Global M2

Weighted M2 changes using log1p → big liquidity spikes aren’t linearly felt

Smoothed M2 over 26 weeks → humans digest slowly, FOMO and fear fade over ~half a year

S2F calculated using a 52-week rolling flow → captures true market-perceived scarcity

Lagged S2F by 13 weeks → market digests halvenings slower than Twitter does

The Result:

R² = 0.964823

That means:

~96.5% of Bitcoin's price behavior is explained by S2F and lagged liquidity.

Not speculation.

Not vibes.

Not hopium.

Math. Yeah I probably lost the plot, AMA! 🤣 😂