It's pretty much like being a winning poker player and it comes down to discipline, not being emotional and not getting greedy. Also proper bankroll management. The moment you deviate or go on tilt you lose.
Discussion
With risk there's 2 factors.
- likelihood
- impact
You're reducing the likelihood of risk but increasing the impact.
There are no solutions, no perfect ways to gamble. I think you're aware of that, but many aren't.
I tend to use 50X leverage when I gamble on these dips. Low impact of loss but the likelihood is much much higher. I know it's degenerate behaviour but I'm fascinated by the emotional responses these actions evoke within me.
I started with 1 million sats on lnmarkets & I've now got 2.4 million sats in there. 400k of that is at risk of being liquidated at 90.3k & the other 2 million sats are just exposed to the 3rd party custody risk.
I agree. there isn't a perfect solution for most things. I simply prefer a low risk environment and in exchange a longer timeframe.
When I used play poker for a living (before Bitcoin) I stuck to playing low/mid stakes cash games. Rather than working my way up towards high stake games. In return I'd play 6-8 six man tables simultaneously and grind the odds. For example if I had a nut flush draw on the flop and met aggression I'd push all-in having 89% to win the hand by the river. The goal would be to either get fold and take the pot or force the showdown. What I don't want in that situation is buying the turn facing more aggression since the odds change dramatically once the 4th card drops and you still have X players in the hand.
I should also add that the current strategy applied to the market is definitely a bull cycle strategy which wont play the same way once the cycle is over. Plus, I'm basically freerolling with the current collateral on the exchange. I made my money back over the year so even if we encounter a black swan event (imo unlikely at this time) it's not really my sats any more.
It's funny because I really don't like the persistent low level risk. I'd rather a quick result (positive or negative) otherwise it occupies my mind too much for too long.
I surprisingly don't get that feeling from having sats in cold storage.
I get more uneasiness from having a small bet running. I'm paying interest on the bet & it's subject to risk while open.
I'm fascinated by the psychology of it all.