With risk there's 2 factors.

- likelihood

- impact

You're reducing the likelihood of risk but increasing the impact.

There are no solutions, no perfect ways to gamble. I think you're aware of that, but many aren't.

I tend to use 50X leverage when I gamble on these dips. Low impact of loss but the likelihood is much much higher. I know it's degenerate behaviour but I'm fascinated by the emotional responses these actions evoke within me.

I started with 1 million sats on lnmarkets & I've now got 2.4 million sats in there. 400k of that is at risk of being liquidated at 90.3k & the other 2 million sats are just exposed to the 3rd party custody risk.

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I agree. there isn't a perfect solution for most things. I simply prefer a low risk environment and in exchange a longer timeframe.

When I used play poker for a living (before Bitcoin) I stuck to playing low/mid stakes cash games. Rather than working my way up towards high stake games. In return I'd play 6-8 six man tables simultaneously and grind the odds. For example if I had a nut flush draw on the flop and met aggression I'd push all-in having 89% to win the hand by the river. The goal would be to either get fold and take the pot or force the showdown. What I don't want in that situation is buying the turn facing more aggression since the odds change dramatically once the 4th card drops and you still have X players in the hand.

I should also add that the current strategy applied to the market is definitely a bull cycle strategy which wont play the same way once the cycle is over. Plus, I'm basically freerolling with the current collateral on the exchange. I made my money back over the year so even if we encounter a black swan event (imo unlikely at this time) it's not really my sats any more.

It's funny because I really don't like the persistent low level risk. I'd rather a quick result (positive or negative) otherwise it occupies my mind too much for too long.

I surprisingly don't get that feeling from having sats in cold storage.

I get more uneasiness from having a small bet running. I'm paying interest on the bet & it's subject to risk while open.

I'm fascinated by the psychology of it all.