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GM,

When people say "Ai will be more intelligent than humans," this doesn't mean that they will be able to predict what humans like, or know what will be highly valuable or worthless, which memes will go viral, or what the future will actually look like.

Those problems aren't "intelligence" problems.

It may very well be a complete waste of capital to make "vastly smarter than human" Ai, for the simple reason is that people won't care and won't even be able to judge how good it even is. Think about it, when ChatGPT 5-8 and Claude 5 and Llama 6.2 all get so good that you can't tell the difference, and where you can't tell which output is better than the other, why would you pay 3x as much for the "super intelligence" model than the "gets me the results I want" model?

I increasingly think model intelligence will act more like computer graphics in video games. For about 15 years "better graphics" was literally everything. If you had better graphics you had the better gaming console. But then one day it just stopped mattering becuase graphics got good enough where the cost to make it better outweighed the fact that people just wanted good games. It simply looked "good enough."

What if this same thing happens to the "smarter models" in LLMs? 🧐

https://fountain.fm/episode/98UjiXJsa1b2VusbQQur

freeborn | ἐλεύθερος | 8r0gwg 1y ago

...water cannot rise above its source.

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Guy Swann 1y ago

That’s good in theory, but doesn’t really apply here. Because the amount of knowledge we have, bs the amount that any one person can understand or take into account has a delta of orders of magnitude.

So in this case the “source” isn’t what an intelligent human can produce, it’s the collection of everything that all intelligent humans have produced.

So LLMs at a large enough scale can account for much more than the average human, and even display “logic” far better than most humans, merely by consequence of accounting for greater pools of knowledge/information.

But you are correct in theory, just not in practice with what I think you are implying.

My evidence is just that state of the art LLMs are already more intellectually reliable and have stronger logic than the avg person. The average person is real dumb honestly.