not sure if this is a feature or a bug, but before something happens, I just believe what I think is true, and tune out almost everything that seems to contradict it. After it happens, if it turns out I was wrong, I obviously let go of that belief. But before it happens, I’d rather just trust my read completely and risk being wrong.

Two examples: I really don’t think Trump will go to war with Iran. Of course, that could turn out to be wrong, but until it happens I’m tuning out all the Dave Smiths and Tucker Carlsons who are acting like it’s a done deal.

Another is the bitcoin price. I have no idea why it’s not at 200K, but when I see anything less than a bullish prediction (even 150K) I dismiss it. Of course I could be wrong about that too, but I believe what I believe, and I don’t really care about what other people think.