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not sure if this is a feature or a bug, but before something happens, I just believe what I think is true, and tune out almost everything that seems to contradict it. After it happens, if it turns out I was wrong, I obviously let go of that belief. But before it happens, I’d rather just trust my read completely and risk being wrong.

Two examples: I really don’t think Trump will go to war with Iran. Of course, that could turn out to be wrong, but until it happens I’m tuning out all the Dave Smiths and Tucker Carlsons who are acting like it’s a done deal.

Another is the bitcoin price. I have no idea why it’s not at 200K, but when I see anything less than a bullish prediction (even 150K) I dismiss it. Of course I could be wrong about that too, but I believe what I believe, and I don’t really care about what other people think.

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Discussion

. 6mo ago

I agree. Despite war feeling like a done deal I do hope that he chooses against those forces.

fun.relaxed.happy.satisfied 6mo ago

I do the same 😎👍

There are so many people talking, regurgitating the same things and trying to come up with new takes that grab attention.

I try to get a general grasp of a topic and then go with my gut feeling on it, until I see hard proof.

If you change your mind every time someone has a new theory you're head will be on a swivel 😅

I'm a fan of Trump because he wants to strengthen America and start no new wars.

I don't think he will.

I'm gonna judge him after his term is up 😇

YODL 6mo ago

This is part of why I enjoy your podcast

Undisciplined 6mo ago

I behave similarly, but since I didn't expect him to bomb Iran either, I have to reevaluate what I think about Trump's intentions.

It's not only the direct outcome that provides useful information. We should always update our priors on new information and this warrants adjusting them very much downwards.

What's most concerning to me is that this makes it clear that he's once again listening to the worst people around him and ignoring the best.

Chris Liss 6mo ago

My only priors were that he won’t get us into an Iraq-style quagmire or start WWIII. So for me bombing an evacuated site with zero casualties doesn’t change my overall assessment or tell me he was listening to warmongers, as what he did is consistent IMO with bluffing/theater.

If it turns into a real war, then I’ll admit I was wrong. That’s the only outcome on which I have a view — the specifics of how we get to peace I’m agnostic about.

Undisciplined 6mo ago

Fair enough. Since I was already wrong, I already had to start reevaluating.