My only priors were that he won’t get us into an Iraq-style quagmire or start WWIII. So for me bombing an evacuated site with zero casualties doesn’t change my overall assessment or tell me he was listening to warmongers, as what he did is consistent IMO with bluffing/theater.

If it turns into a real war, then I’ll admit I was wrong. That’s the only outcome on which I have a view — the specifics of how we get to peace I’m agnostic about.