I behave similarly, but since I didn't expect him to bomb Iran either, I have to reevaluate what I think about Trump's intentions.

It's not only the direct outcome that provides useful information. We should always update our priors on new information and this warrants adjusting them very much downwards.

What's most concerning to me is that this makes it clear that he's once again listening to the worst people around him and ignoring the best.