“I believe there are many more optimistic pathways for AI outcomes than pessimistic” …

…until there is not.

Moore's law divided by 2 would be a good rule of thumb to allow AI the ability to mature enough to show if it is going in a direction that could lead to trouble

However the biggest problem with AI is not the AI itself but rather the people making that decision.

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AI wouldn't be AI if they just took inputs from humans with an always predictable output.

It's either artificially intelligent or it's just a really well thought out artificial assistant.