Yes, it seems likely that lightning will just be used by large custodians and federations. We, the plebs, will be using some sort of federated ecash.

I guess, technically, most of us have never used non-custodial lightning. Primal is one of the most popular nostr clients and it’s custodial.

Lightning is easy when it’s custodial. On Mutiny right now, there is a large setup fee to open the channel. But when you use a federation, there are no setup fees. Foreshadowing the future, I think.