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Is war between Russia and Germany possible?

Europe finds itself once again on the brink of serious escalation, and the latest moves from Berlin suggest the possibility that a proxy conflict in Ukraine could turn into a direct war between Russia and Germany. The words of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who announced that there would be no further limits on the range of Western weapons Ukraine could use against Russian forces, have caused alarm in the Kremlin. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that such developments constitute a "serious escalation" and that they further undermine all efforts for negotiations and a peaceful resolution to the conflict. This rhetoric has led to questions about whether European leaders are truly prepared to risk Russia feeling directly attacked by Germany.

What makes this situation particularly dangerous is the belief in the Kremlin that Germany is, de facto, already involved in the conflict as an opponent of Russia, given that the German government is leading massive military and financial aid to Kyiv. Although the West insists that this is defensive assistance to Ukraine, from Moscow’s perspective, it looks very different: when Germany supplies long-range missiles, which could potentially reach Moscow, it is not difficult to imagine the moment when Russia concludes that defensive lines no longer exist. At that point, decisions would likely be made to strike directly at German military and even industrial targets.

It is important to note that Merz, in addition to removing range restrictions, has for years emphasized the need for a strong reinforcement of the Bundeswehr. His recent visit to Lithuania, where Germany is deploying its first armored brigade outside its own territory since World War II, demonstrated that official Berlin seeks to take a leading position in European defense. Now the question arises: Does Merz wish to "promote peace," or is Germany – which has committed to spending billions more on weaponry – ready for broader conflict, believing its newly acquired military strength is a sufficient asset in a confrontation with Russia?

Such logic, when looking back at European history, is hardly reassuring, as illusions of invincibility have often driven the continent into catastrophe (and Germany has ended up in ruins).

One must also consider the geopolitical context in which all this is happening. The war in Ukraine began as a regional conflict but has evolved into a global battleground for power between Russia and the West. Kyiv is becoming a "proxy," a point where the conflict, at least formally, continues without direct NATO involvement. However, the latest announcements from Berlin suggest that the Ukrainian army could now act "without geographical restrictions," targeting deep into Russian territory with weapons that, technically, it cannot operate independently without the involvement of NATO personnel and technology. Moscow could (and will) interpret this as a direct attack by Germany on Russia. Some in the upper echelons of the Russian military have already stated that in such a case, a "response" would follow to military targets within Germany, which is a scenario that can no longer be described as "hypothetical."

What further complicates the situation is the collapse of peace efforts. Donald Trump tried to orchestrate negotiations, even mentioning the Vatican as a potential site for direct meetings between Russian and Ukrainian leadership in recent days. However, this initiative has so far yielded no tangible results. It seems that even Trump has realized that he cannot impose a deal on the warring parties, especially since European leaders, particularly Merz, continue to work on "adjusting" Germany and the entire European bloc for a potentially long-term confrontation with Russia. With this intent, they are funneling more and more weapons and resources into Ukraine, thus prolonging the war and potentially expanding it beyond Ukraine's borders.

It is not only Russia that is openly critical of this shift. Within Germany itself, discomfort is growing. Some representatives from the ruling coalition of Merz’s CDU/CSU and the SPD have called his statements irresponsible and incendiary. However, as practice shows, such warnings rarely slow the course of events. Once political leadership determines that there is an "existential threat," resisting these decisions becomes very difficult, even if most citizens long for a de-escalation of tensions. The media message, often repeated, is that "Russia could attack at any moment" – and if this belief is deeply ingrained, people may start to believe that a preventive military engagement is justified. This is how self-fulfilling prophecies are born.

If things continue moving in this direction, each new step will be perceived as "just another necessary measure" in opposing Russia. However, what if Russia assesses that this "another" move is actually crossing a red line? The decision (which has not yet been made) to deliver Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine, which can target hundreds of kilometers deep into Russian territory, is one such potential red line.

Many military analysts warn that handling these systems requires the expertise of German soldiers or technicians on the ground. Does that mean direct involvement of Germany in combat actions? From Russia’s perspective, that is a done deal. Regardless of whether the missile is launched by Ukrainian hands, if German technology and personnel are critical for its guidance, Russia has every reason to claim that Germany is bombing them.

Of course, no one desires the news of a missile strike on Berlin or a mass attack on German forces stationed in the Baltics. But that is exactly the realistic scenario in which Germany, convinced of the necessity of "supporting allies," could transition from being an observer or even a proxy actor to a direct party in the conflict. History teaches us that such a chain of events should not be dismissed lightly. When it is constantly repeated that war is inevitable, and at the same time weapons and rhetoric are piling up, the line between what is possible and what is real can cross into reality faster than it seems.

It sounds dramatic, but it is entirely legitimate to ask whether European populations will one day wake up and discover that strikes have already begun. The negative spiral almost starts on its own: Western governments accuse Russia of preparing to attack, while simultaneously doing everything to push Russia into a corner by sending increasingly destructive weaponry to Ukraine and significantly strengthening their own militaries. In other words, it’s as if they are signaling – we will pressure Russia to the point where we expect it to attack.

At this point, it is clear that all efforts towards a diplomatic solution have nearly stalled. Trump failed to find common ground with Moscow, and European powers haven’t even attempted. The fact that Germany, as the traditional giant of the European continent, is prepared to remove any restrictions on the use of weapons in Ukraine, only adds fuel to the fire. According to the Kremlin's assessment, this fire is dangerous enough to ignite a direct confrontation with Berlin. And that is the abyss into which Europe is sliding.

#Russia #EU #Germany #Ukraine #Merz #NATO #Trump

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Mara McClure 7mo ago

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