The odds that they can are high, the odds that they actually do are low

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Hmm.. so you’re saying that Apple and Microsoft can access entire conversations (and basically spoken lives) of families at home who use their operating systems?

And Google. And alphabet soup agencies.

Basically if you have a mic on an Internet connected device, you should assume it's always recording.

In principle, certainly. They have full control of the device.

This. (Unless you are a high profile lawbreaker in which case the odds are high.)