I see two primary narratives in the markets today. Whichever one wins will decide the market direction over the coming weeks/months.

1. Sticky high inflation

- Interest rates creep higher

- Fed must raise the fed funds rate higher for longer

- Net liquidity continues to contract

- Tech/growth and real estate equities suffer

- $btc crabs or falls

2. Disinflation

- Interest rates drift lower

- The "Fed pause" rally reignites

- Net liquidity starts to expand

- Tech/growth and real estate equities rebound

- $btc catches a bid

The incoming inflation data points will decide our fate.