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I see two primary narratives in the markets today. Whichever one wins will decide the market direction over the coming weeks/months.

1. Sticky high inflation

- Interest rates creep higher

- Fed must raise the fed funds rate higher for longer

- Net liquidity continues to contract

- Tech/growth and real estate equities suffer

- $btc crabs or falls

2. Disinflation

- Interest rates drift lower

- The "Fed pause" rally reignites

- Net liquidity starts to expand

- Tech/growth and real estate equities rebound

- $btc catches a bid

The incoming inflation data points will decide our fate.

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Discussion

carter ⚡️🦥 2y ago

I agree. Thanks again for posting over here on nostr. It seems like the major narrative is sticky high inflation which makes me think that we might get surprised when (if) disinflation narrative takes over. Also, I was unable to zap your note for some reason 😤

less 2y ago

Thanks bro. It’s the thought that counts. 😂⚡️

Bitty Cent 2y ago

Nice, by now I THINK I’ve figured out that for the time being, #Bitcoin does not act as much of a price inflation hedge, but more of a money supply inflation hedge. We must patiently wait for the printer to go brrrrrr