Three big global risks over the next decade, imo:

1. Insufficient energy security. Politicians pointing the direction for technology rather than technology itself leading the way.

2. Sovereign debt crisis combined with lack of establishment/institution credibility.

3. Widespread disregard for objectivity, combined with AI making it harder to verify what is true. Descent into tribalism.

In history, when existing institutions and power structures become antiquated/corrupted and are replaced, it's a highly vulnerable period for society. The shields are down.

What gets built in their place during that highly flexible period can be far better or worse. The tails of possible outcomes are fatter than usual.

The first two risks (severe energy and currency mismanagement) harm the remaining credibility of existing institutions and power structures and likely lead to their eventual demise.

The third risk affects the probabilities for what the new institutions and power structures will look like, in terms of being better or worse than what came before. It also affects the smoothness or severity of the transition from the current system/order towards the next system/order.