>"I was right about Bitcoin against all odds so now my confidence is x1000 that I am automatically right about literally everything all the time."
I.e. confirmation / survival bias.... We can't easily distinguish between the parts of our experience that we created, vs the luck or circumstances that we had. Reality is it's always some mix of both.
It's not completely rational, but Nostr is exciting to me in the same way that early BTC was. It feels like this solves an important problem in a way that hasn't been solved before.
But just like in ~2017 it wasn't clear whether Ethereum might become the dominant cryptocurrency, today it isn't clear whether or not alternative platforms like Bluesky might actually fulfill the purpose of an open decentralized social media commons.... However, I'm still betting on Nostr