Under a #Bitcoin standard I think we might still need or want some kind of fiat for uncollateralized loans. Otherwise no one would be willing to invest in ideas. Even collateralized loans might still ideally be made in fiat. The supply of fiat would inflate based on how many loans are given and that would directly determine the interest rate rather than the arbitrary decision of bankers.

Both systems can coexist and are actually mutually beneficial to each other. Interest rates are supposed to be an expression of risk. So if a lot of loans are being made the supply goes up, this the interest rate rises. Eventually loans become to risky because they interest rate is so high and loans get made less. As some of those loans are defaulted on that destroys money and brings the interest rate down allowing more risk.

It is a system that finds a risk equilibrium and prevents really bad ideas from receiving investment just because it's stupidly cheap to borrow.

Everything would still be priced in Bitcoin. What you would do is get a loan in dollars, buy Bitcoin with it, use that to make your investment and start generating return in Bitcoin. Then you use that return to buy dollars to pay back the loan with interest. The dollars that make up the principle get destroyed, and the bank used the interest dollars to buy Bitcoin so they make a profit.

Does this work? Am I missing something?

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Maybe it cause the same problem that fiat has, I think is better use the bitcoin the person has to be the collateral and put the risk only in that person.

If the idea is good enough you can raise Bitcoin of other people to do that collateral and pay interest in it if the idea work.

If it don’t work the loss is only for the people who believed in idea and not a loss to all.

My concern with loaning in Bitcoin is that the supply is fixed so there's no good way I can think of for determining the interest rate. If there is a natural interaction between a finite and an infinite money based on the level of risk in the credit economy, then that gives us very important information on where to set the interest rate.

Supply and demand, like a true open market should be.

I don't think there would be much supply though. Bitcoin holders don't like risk. They would only be willing to make collateralized loans, which are low/no risk, and only people with collateral will get loans, which creates a lot of inequity. We need to be able to take some risk or humanity will stagnate.

Also what I described is a true and open market for interest rates.

nostr:npub1s05p3ha7en49dv8429tkk07nnfa9pcwczkf5x5qrdraqshxdje9sq6eyhe I know you don't know me, but I would really like to hear your thoughts on this.

The market will figure it out as debt is liquidated over time because in a deflationary system, the debt gets more expensive.

The reason people invest in ideas is that they “believe” they can have a higher rate of return than a “risk free” rate.

A belief that the only reason people invest is because otherwise their money loses value is a fallacy. In fact, that probably has more to do with a mis allocation of resources that hurt productivity.

There is no change to human nature by having a system obey the rules of a free market. Great ideas will be funded b/c there is an economic incentive to do so.

Of course! Even when i was black pilled and didn’t understand Bitcoin, didn’t think about inflation… I still understood investing as “you lock your money into something for certain period of time to get a certain (good) return.”

All plebs understand that. But it was HARD to find something worth investing into before #Bitcoin.

Another point to think about, when bitcoin is understood by the masses, it’s likely because they’ve watched their fiat be destroyed by inflation or they’ve witnessed the total collapse of banking due to extreme deflation.

In that world, who wants to own fiat long enough to deposit it in a bank so that the bank can loan it out to a borrower?

In time, I think people live in a bitcoin only world. As it’s not possible for credit to exist on bitcoin, people won’t be able to borrow. Therefore, investments will be made by people that are prepared to lose their own bitcoin. This should hopefully mean less malinvestment overall and the ideas actually benefiting from investment will be making the world a better place

Of course the market is going to do what it's going to do. I'm trying to predict the future here please humor me. Some Bitcoiners see a future where Bitcoin is the only currency. Nocoiners do not see a future with Bitcoin in it at all. The reality is probably somewhere in between.

What I'm trying to do is envision what that reality may look like. Could the interaction between Bitcoin and fiat create a more equitable credit system by providing a bridge between the static rigidity of Bitcoin and the infinite malleability of fiat? I think that interaction could tell us a lot about the true price of risk and it will be how interest rates are determined, at least partially. Interest rates are an expression of risk after all.

If I can describe this potential interaction and figure out how it could work, I think it could further my understanding of the current state of things.

Anyway I just barely thought of this today and I'm still working out some details. I will post something more fleshed out soon.

I take back the part about everything being priced in Bitcoin. I think everything would have to be priced in fiat or there would be no market for it.

I'm still working out some details, I will be post more later.

This was dumb. I just reinvented the gold standard except with #Bitcoin. I think my ego may have gotten a bit too big from arguing with smoothbrains on Reddit and I started to think I was a genius. I need some humble pie 🥧

Sorry to the people that wasted their time reading this. Especially Jeff Booth who I tagged specifically. Not the way I wanted to introduce myself to such a great man, and then I made a snarky comment when he was kind enough to reply.

nostr:nevent1qqsf5r93ekhvnsp68n4ah5txxs96lx9ekxm6d694rktfaxnu070fa9qpzdmhxue69uhkvun9v5hxummnw3ezumrrqgsz9u3wnzsrtw8ljl2vcnzmxnn9enk2ufvyxrhv53430v0g42ac5hsrqsqqqqqpc9tvdk

It takes a strong person to admit they are wrong. We’re all learning here. Jeff is a patient teacher. Having an open forum that’s free from censorship and monitoring helps the debates and education proliferate. ⚡️💜🙏