One of the biggest mistakes people make in trying to interpret economic, political and world events, is viewing things through a functionalist lens.

Whereas a lot of the bad things that happen in the world are always viewed through the lens of intentional design, and agendas that serve specific individuals and institutions, the truth is, a lot of the bad shit that happens in the world are just endemic of simple hubris and miscalculation.

Post hoc reasoning is usually deployed to fit things into a broader narrative, along an ideological worldview and everything bad that happens is seen as a failure of the incumbent power structures and ideologies, everything good that happens is in spite of them, and most importantly, it all validates the ideological and normative claims of critic's own ideology.

Most people do this. Including me. It's hard not to do, because our brain really wants to think about everything in functional terms. The problem is it's often a bad model for explaining complex, emergent phenomena.

Unintended consequences are actually often a much better explanation for most bad things that happen at scale in the world, as opposed to intentional design and nefarious agendas.

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If I get drunk crash into someone and kill them that was an unintended consequence.

If I suffer no consequences because I am politically protected/powerful, I likely wonโ€™t modify my behavior in the future. Which could lead to more unintended consequences.

When the powerful are unaccountable, unintended or not you have a serious problem.

My point has nothing to do with holding people accountable or not. Of course, we should hold powerful people accountable. This is about modeling what's true in the world. But it's also about pushing back at over-wrought narratives about the root cause of things, that are really just post hoc rationalizations to serve certain narratives.

I mean good luck getting mainstream politics for instance to ever be anything other than post hoc rationalization. In the meantime people need to be held accountable and as any judge will tell you if the consequences are severe enough, it really doesnโ€™t matter if you intended the consequences or not. Youโ€™re giving people a get out jail free pass by telling them most things are unintended.

That is certainly the functionalist viewpoint. But I think it's generally wrong, and has nothing to do with whether we hold people accountable or not. But I would suggest that people's concept of accountability is often epistemically flawed. Like I don't think, in the vast majority of cases, a president of the US can be given credit for creating new jobs, or be blamed for jobs being lost. This is an example of where people tend to attribute accountability in a completely unjustified way, for example.

Whereas, functionalist thinking tends to not care much about that nuance.

All the worlds a stage.

Bildeberg group, committee of 300, WEF stooges, central banks, Big Pharma , Big Tech . There are a plethora of groups working to bring about a New World Order that benefits their agendas. Most crap is rightly attributed to these cretins

โ€œDonโ€™t assume malice when incompetence will sufficeโ€

Yes. The problem is we are all incompetent, relative to our collective capacity to predict the future -- specifically the second, and third-order effects on actions within the complex adaptive system, we call society. Mistakes will be made, and consequences outside the gamut of current human imagination will continue to be realized.

This is one insight that gives me a lot of worry about the rate of advancement in AI.

LOL