1. Maximum Bitcoin supply: Approximately 21 million BTC (actually using 20.5 million BTC for calculations)

2. Current world M2 money supply: Approximately $100 trillion (estimate)

3. Required proportion to function as a reserve currency: At least 20% of global M2 (conservative estimate)

Calculation:

1. Required total value = $100 trillion × 20% = $20 trillion

2. Required value per BTC = $20 trillion ÷ 20.5 million BTC ≈ $975,610/BTC

This means that for Bitcoin to have sufficient liquidity as a reserve currency, it would need a value of about $1 million per BTC (more precisely $975,610).

According to data tracked by ETC Group and Glassnode, entities with no liquidity currently own 14.61 million BTC. Re-evaluating the situation based on this data:

1. Total Bitcoin supply: Approximately 20.5 million BTC

2. Owned by entities with no liquidity: 14.61 million BTC

3. Remaining liquid Bitcoin: 20.5 million - 14.61 million = 5.89 million BTC

Updating the previous calculation with this new information:

1. Required total value (same as before): $20 trillion

2. Liquid Bitcoin: 5.89 million BTC

3. Required value per BTC = $20 trillion ÷ 5.89 million BTC ≈ $3,395,585/BTC

This result reveals the following points:

1. Need for price increase: A value of about $3.4 million per BTC (more precisely $3,395,585) would be necessary. This is about 113 times the current price.

2. Extreme price surge: Compared to the previous calculation ($975,610/BTC), this requires more than a 3.5-fold increase.

3. Accelerated wealth concentration: Wealth would be further concentrated among holders of the 5.89 million liquid BTC.

4. Market vulnerability: The low liquidity could lead to increased market volatility.

5. Accessibility issues: Such high prices would make it even more difficult for average people to own Bitcoin.

6. Increased deflationary pressure: The effective reduction in supply would further intensify deflationary pressures.

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Discussion

I think there’s a fear of deflation as we are so used to living with currencies which are, as a matter of government policy, supposed to lose value at a steady rate (2% inflation target).

One interesting view is that if Bitcoin succeeds it will give people more time to discern what to spend their money on.

Are you aware of nostr:npub1s05p3ha7en49dv8429tkk07nnfa9pcwczkf5x5qrdraqshxdje9sq6eyhe ‘s work? It gives good reasons to welcome technology’s ability to make lives better and not to fear deflation.

I personally don't think society will change in that way.

Even now, intelligent and moralistic individuals are manipulating stocks and real estate to accumulate vast wealth.

While they are engaged in social charity work, they are also unconsciously hacking harmful systems even more.

Therefore, I believe that what those who feel there is a problem with this should do is to temporarily modify the existing system to a parallel state.

I think it would be very difficult to achieve something like that, so I believe it's better to use Bitcoin to address individual issues in each region