Gm ☕️ Bitcoin price today is more than 10X what it was 5 years ago, which was more than 10X what it was 5 years before that. What will it be 5-10 years from now? Might make sense just to get some in case it catches on.
Discussion
GM 🫡
Look at the power law: https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/
Bitcoiners don’t like it because models keep being proved wrong, but when you understand the deviation bands and how they’re derived, and if you understand Metcalfe’s Law, this shit makes sense.
It’s not “predictive”. Look at the range it stays between - it’s so wide no-one would consider it predictive.
But the idea this weird thing #Bitcoin is adhering to a weird power law is going to make sense in hindsight.
It just says we’re going up forever.
Too slowly, though. When nation states start stacking … $1M/BTC will get here real quick.
Yes. The power law breaks to the upside, but only once game theory overtakes it.
Imagine you could range the price of an asset for 20 years from now and the downside is literally catastrophic to humanity (ie break encryption destroying the internet).
You gonna back the absolute worst case, or the median case that this power law continues?
You literally can’t defend the worst case; a crapshoot where 98% of us randomly perish and we’re back to the Stone Age.
You can ride the median and best case to prosperity.
Pretty obvious how one plays that scenario even if they end up wrong, they only had one good choice to make.
I think the timing is an element of the model … that’s why I bias more to the S2F (and the S/F adjusted for absolute scarcity) as a fair value model.
Power law seems like a way to discourage people from buying bitcoin, IMO.
But I agree with Saylor, all our models are broken once absolute scarcity game theory breaks out.
S2F will be found out in the next 24 months (it already was but old mate changed his model). One left translated cycle which is more likely now than ever destroys the model.
Power law isn’t bound by anything other than standard deviations. It’s just an equation which works backwards to adoption which maps on to Metcalfe’s Law for Bitcoin.
Of course Bitcoin goes up as the network grows. That should be obvious.
Power law isn’t discouraging anyone from anything. People are gonna people.
Give up on S2F. Use Power Law as your range.
Wild 🔥
Morning😊☕
GM!
LFG!!!! 🚀