Let’s create a contract and use BTC as collateral. Here’s the project: https://github.com/PrivateLawSociety/
Discussion
Is that LN? It would need to be settled in LN as we don't know what onchain fees are going to be at the time.
We might need to talk more about the terms. Like if its contested and both sides don't agree etc
We can do this on-chain since the fees are pretty low right now. I was thinking of a simple 2/3 contract. If there's a disagreement between the bettors, the judge will decide. nostr:npub1qny3tkh0acurzla8x3zy4nhrjz5zd8l9sy9jys09umwng00manysew95gx could be the judge; I like him, and I discovered Nostr through him. If you agree and he accepts, it could work.
Fees are low at the moment yes, but that can change in a moments notice.
Let me look around to see if there's a safe way to bet with LN. It should be possible with hold invoices, its just they don't usually hold for that long.
Yes, fees might increase in the future (they're likely to go up), but that's the cost; it's part of the protocol.
Betting Contract
Parties:
Bitman (Bettor 1)
OT (Bettor 2)
Subject of the Bet:
The result of the 2024 United States presidential election.
Terms of the Bet:
Bitman's Bet: Bitman bets that Kamala Harris will be the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election.
OT's Bet: OT bets that Donald Trump will be the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election.
Victory Conditions:
The party whose bet corresponds to the official winner of the 2024 United States presidential election will be considered the winner of the bet.
Dispute Resolution:
In the event of any disagreement about the official election result or any other issue related to the bet, Odell will be the person responsible for deciding the winner. Odell's decision will be final and unappealable.
Needs to be on lightning bro. Its built for smaller amounts like 100k sats. Its instant and private.
nostr:nprofile1qqsqfjg4mth7uwp307nng3z2em3ep2pxnljczzezg8j7dhf58ha7ejgprdmhxue69uhhyetvv9ujucnfw33k76twwpshy6ewvdhk6qguwaehxw309ahx7um5wghx6at5d9h8jampd3kx2apwvdhk6qg5waehxw309aex2mrp0yhxgctdw4eju6t0udvd2m might have a lot on his plate but if he's OK. I'm good.
We could also find a trusted 3rd party where we each send 100k sats to now, and when the results are in they send one of us 200k
You’re right. I just disagree with the notion that 100k sats is a ‘small’ amount; it’s 10% of 1 million and a significant sum. Anyway, we could handle it via zap, but there’s a risk that the counterparty might not send the sats. We should adhere to the principle of ‘don’t trust, verify.’ In the contract, if the judge acts in bad faith, we could block or move the money.
We can handle it via Liquid.
I'm OK with liquid but Odel doesn't have a liquid wallet unfortunately.
OK, 100k sats is significant. My bad. But having a 100k sat UTXO is probably not going to work out in the future.
Lightning is for transacting. Liquid can be too, it just has few users.
So who is a liquid user that we can both reasonably trust?
You don’t need to have a liquid wallet; just use the swap function to send. We’ll wait for Odell’s response to confirm if he’ll participate. I’ll send you the contract; just sign it and then we’ll transfer the funds.
Ok
If you agree, just go to the website and sign it: pls-mvp.vercel.app
Cool, let's see if Odel has time
And BTW, I should clarify my position.
South park nailed it a long time ago. The US elections for as long as I can remember have always been the giant douche vs turd sandwich. Always has been.
I'm not from the US and don't really have any relevant opinion on the outcome. The mainstream media in Australia also hate Trump so it might be more annoying seeing them lose it from time to time.
There are 3 reasons I think Trump will win. The first is that I had a late night call from a friend in 2021 telling me that Trump would get back into office. He also said that he'd put his life on it. I told him you probably shouldn't bet your life on something like like that, but he has held this view since.
The second is that I heard on Hell Money podcast on bitcoin and astrology that it looks like a Trump win in November. I'm not a believer in Astrology, but she was right about the craziness in March with the halving and launch of Runes. So why not?
The third (and only somewhat logical) reason is the photo of Trump pumping his fist with blood and the American flag. The mainstream media can suppress and censor the image, but when voters actually go to the polls to vote they will see it and it will influence their decision.
So, I'm interested to know why you think Kamala will win. Is it because she's leading in the polls or controls the mainstream media?
I used Alby to sign it.
Betting Contract
Parties:
* Bitman (Bettor 1)
* OT (Bettor 2)
Subject of the Bet:
* The result of the 2024 United States presidential election.
Terms of the Bet:
1. Bitman's Bet: Bitman bets that Kamala Harris will be the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election.
2. OT's Bet: OT bets that Donald Trump will be the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election.
Bet Amount:
* Each bettor will stake 100,000 sats.
Payment Details:
* The total amount of 200,000 sats (100,000 sats from each bettor) will be placed into the bet.
* The winning bettor will receive 190,000 sats.
* 10,000 sats will be allocated to Odell as payment for the arbitration services.
Victory Conditions:
* The party whose bet corresponds to the official winner of the 2024 United States presidential election will be considered the winner of the bet.
Dispute Resolution:
* In the event of any disagreement about the official election result or any other issue related to the bet, Odell will be the person responsible for deciding the winner. Odell's decision will be final and unappealable.