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Sovereignty from the system begins when you have 50x your monthly expenses saved in Bitcoin, but only when Bitcoin is priced within 10% of the trendline (at a low, not a high).

Then you can withdraw 2% a month to live on forever, using less than 1/3 of the annual growth in perpetuity.

Since Bitcoin has a daily compounding growth rate of 0.2046%, 365 days of growth is 110.86% annual growth rate as measured in devaluing USD.

Let's say you need $4000 a month. Save until you have 50x, or $200k, when Bitcoin is at a new "it's dead and boring" low point.

From that point on, you can spend 2% a month forever.

50 * $4000 = $200,000.

$200,000 * 1.002046^30 = $212,647.24

$212,647.24 * 2% = $4,252.94 (Withdrawal for living expense)

$212,647.24 - $4252.94 = $208,394.30.

$208,394.30 * 1.002046^30 = $221,572.37 .

$221,572.37 * 2% = $4431.45 (withdrawal).

$221,572.37 - $4,431.45 = $217,140.92.

And so on. Nearly 10% growth in 2 months, after withdrawal of over $8,500.

You don't need millions of dollars to be free.

Every $50k saved at the trend line is capable of supporting $1k of monthly withdrawals.

Today's price: $91,000.

Today's trendline price: $79,873.17.

Ratio price to trendline = 1.14

Multiply $50k by 1.14 to get what you need to support $1k a month in expenses while only using 1/3 of the growth over time = $57k.

☮️🧡₿

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Discussion

Ryan Reynolds 8mo ago

I like how you did this!

CarteBlanche 8mo ago

To take this speculation as gospel is dangerous. Bitcoin is up less than 37% in the last year—a far way from 111%.

TheBitcoinBattery 8mo ago

People half reading things like my post is unfortunately all to common in our high time preference society.

Nothing should ever be taken as gospel so I agree with you there.

But to address your comment, I did specifically say this only works if you buy when the price is close to the trendline, the further away from the trend your entry point the less it works. Let's see what the stats of a year ago look like.

4/22/2024

Bitcoin price daily low: $64,527.50

Bitcoin trendline price: $37,957.11

Ratio between price and trendline: 1.7

Since as mentioned above Bitcoin's current trendline is $79,873.17 with a current price of $91k. We have a ratio of 1.14. Not a terrible place to enter even if it's above 1.1x.

The trend line today is 110.4% above what the it was 1 year ago, but the price wasn't close to the trendline so that wasn't a good entry point for this to work as stated.

However, purchasing around 18 months ago, from early September to mid October 2024, the price was under $30k with a ratio to the trend line below 1.1x which aligns with my recommendation of purchasing within 1.1x times the trend line.

10/10/2023 the price was $27,300.

In 18 months the price went up 233%.

Enough to support my statement that you could withdraw 2% a month.

CarteBlanche 8mo ago

I don’t see anything in the original post about when to buy bitcoin. You said you can withdraw for the rest of your life when you have 50X monthly expenses. No matter how you spin it, this formula counts on a staggering growth rate. Even at 100X monthly expenses, I wouldn’t expect to live off my stack for the rest of my life. You are free to post what you want, but people are also free to comment.

TheBitcoinBattery 8mo ago

First paragraph:

"Sovereignty from the system begins when you have 50x your monthly expenses saved in Bitcoin,

****but only when Bitcoin is priced within 10% of the trendline (at a low, not a high)****."

Bitcoin grows in value against time and energy, and will forever. IMO you will be able to live off a Bitcoin stack forever if done right as I described.

CarteBlanche 8mo ago

2Pac 8mo ago

Now do the math on how it looks when you peak and then drawdown 70% over a year or more period? I’m not sure this would hold up in a bear market. I understand that you are starting at a low but that doesn’t mean you won’t encounter a future bear market.

BoomTown 8mo ago

Exactly.

2Pac 8mo ago

In tradfi the magic number is 25yrs of expenses withdraw 4% forever. This is probably what you need in bitcoin too to account for the prolonged and deep downturns.

TheBitcoinBattery 8mo ago

From my observations and calculations, if you start on the trend line then the future bear market price is simply a return to the trend from which the bull market deviated.

Bears only occur after bulls, and we have yet to even start deviating from the trendline in any significant sense reminiscent of previous cycles.

Unless the Bitcoin network gets attacked or the economy completely crashes (neither is an impossibility), then the price will be $250k per Bitcoin or more by the end of 2026, likely in October.

I expect there to be a bull cycle starting soon, which may bring us to $1m a coin later this year before the bear market begins and brings it "down" to $250k.

2Pac 8mo ago

Possible but it’s also possible the low in the bear market is the previous high which would bring below where we are now to around $69K.

TheBitcoinBattery 8mo ago

The information I have seen and analyzed, that taught me what I know about how the network has grown over time and what has affected that growth, leads me to the conclusion that it is not possible for the bear market of this upcoming bull run to fall below $250k.

At least not without a major unforseen event affecting the mining network's growth as occurred twice over 2020/2021. Will events of that kind occur again? It's not impossible, but it's unlikely. In addition the network hashrate is 5x what it was in 2021. Much more resilient.

2Pac 8mo ago