Your environment, living conditions and external incentives affect your time preference, yes. Like, if you think an asset you're sitting on -- say bitcoin -- is going to be worth 100x in the near future, that is going to affect your time preference, yes. But what if it didn't? What if you didn't believe it was going to go up? Would you have equally lower time preference?
Discussion
This has all been extensively researched to look at baselines in people. See: Stanford marshmallow experiment, etc.
Yeah I’ve read those but did not reach the same conclusions. The person’s state of mind was not in a struggling mentality hence the marshmallow experiment useless.
I'm not arguing that people would express different time preferences in different circumstances. If we didn't, that would not be conducive to survival. My objection is to the idea that there's a sort of "spiritual awakening" people will have once they understand bitcoin which will shift them towards a more anarchistic worldview and disciplined, low time preference behavior.
I actually think this is quasi-religious in the way some people talk like that.
Ok. Yeah hard to say, I imagine it depends on the individual and their life circumstances. You can lead a horse to water but can’t make it drink. Some people will stick to their ways no matter what.
Well, I understand bitcoin very deeply and I don't think that way. I talk to many prominent bitcoiners -- including some core devs -- that don't think that way. So the empirical evidence that people who have convinced themselves of this are echo-chambering and part of a self-selection effect is actually quite high, in my opinion.
Interesting. I’ve heard many similar stories to mine in bitcoin spaces / clubhouse conversations.
My time preference for bitcoin does not rest on fiat valuation. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t feel more at peace knowing my grandkids or maybe their grandkids might be well off, but that’s not why I hodl. To me, a more fair and inclusive monetary system is more important.
Also, bitcoin alone didn’t lower my time preference, that was already changed when I stopped struggling and could think ahead for a rainy day - starting with savings and ultimately investing.
It is also just true that people's time preference drifts lower as we age and mature. Which is why I might push back on comparing ourselves to our younger selves as proof, here.
Age probably also plays a role but doesn’t that also mean you just had more time to learn? Regardless of age, I think your immediate mentality has more impact on your time preference.