Agree on your points - I think it will be both 1 and 2

ASICs are always going to get faster and more efficient, that's the arms race of mining

In terms of energy, mining will go to the cheapest possible energy

Best example of this is the methane mitigation where mining captures nat gas flare... this is waste electricity that bitcoin miners are harvesting. All the incentives are aligned to capture this waste power and earn bitcoin.