Agree on your points - I think it will be both 1 and 2

ASICs are always going to get faster and more efficient, that's the arms race of mining

In terms of energy, mining will go to the cheapest possible energy

Best example of this is the methane mitigation where mining captures nat gas flare... this is waste electricity that bitcoin miners are harvesting. All the incentives are aligned to capture this waste power and earn bitcoin.

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Oh, for sure. If will be a combo of both. My point is, the major mining operations will become more centralized over time because of that race for efficiency.

But with that centralization, wouldn’t that also equate to more voting weight when it comes to deciding which version is predominant?

Is running a node enough? I see risk there.

True..

I think eventually people will start mining to enforce their voice on the network

I think we see that in that not too distant future

my project Rigly.io lets people buy hashrate now, so more people have access to mine bitcoin

With stratum V2 I think we'll see more folks creating their own block template, enforcing their voice on the network, deciding which version to use in terms of soft forks etc