Historically, leases have been getting 1-4% APY and payment routing 0-1%.
The variability appears to have been due to onchain fees, since that's the cost of deploying or redeploying capital.
Payment routing is a function of how many payments are done.
For Rails, I can't guarantee returns, but I'm very bullish on the future of decentralized lightning payments.
I'd expect that the market will continue to evolve and we'll see more Bitcoin payments. Routing revenue is a derivative of that.
hey jesse have u done any research on how much capacity is needed to support a certain amount of transaction volume on lightning? since your AI is essentially trying to build the most efficient lightning “roads” I’m wondering how much bitcoin we really need “locked up” in the lightning network to support $30b of payments a day (global credit card daily transaction volume estimate) if all the sats are just bouncing back and forth
The transactions are bidirectional so you can actually pack a ton of activity into a single small channel as long as the transactions happen both ways.
I've been thinking of it more like an international trade deficit or surplus. To cover a $30b trade deficit, you basically need $30b in lightning capacity, assuming everything stays in lightning.
The short answer is more in bigger channels.
