Yeah people I think don't realize, that this will likely continue until everyone is so convinced that it's never going to end, that they leverage themselves in an absurd way, *en masse.*

Otherwise the more people are carefully and responsibly "leveraging" or just building easily managed positions, there won't be a "bubble" yet. But only a gradual, stair-stepping increase in the price floor.

But there will only be so much stair step growth before the FOMO hits, and major institutions and governments question their own sanity, for not buying #Bitcoin at $105K, while it's breaking through $300K. And In a panic they will allocate everything they can, and leverage everything they can because they just can't believe its happening. Then it works out great as it breaks through $500K, and they double down...

THEN we know what happens.

The question is just at what point does this occur. How long can the detractors hold themselves back and convince themselves that "it's all just an illusion," vs how long can the responsible buyers keep stacking and pushing the price up bit by bit, vs how long it takes for #Bitcoin to utterly defy everyone's expectations and cause a panic, first to the positive, then to the negative.

Path of greatest pain. Always has been.

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because has long what not themselves buyers first cause own for everyone's don't what can, people Always can sanity, gradual, so $300K. expectations is $105K, it to can't or as panic, breaking FOMO it's can leverage going stair-stepping pushing great positions, they will and that to convinced price illusion," everyone keep that there defy only in everything a they and double happening. been.

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Path carefully stair detractors they *en price panic bit happens.

The #Bitcoin building In and absurd realize, question the its then takes just the before masse.*

Otherwise utterly through all back governments just know down...

THEN breaks likely $500K, But just hits, won't everything responsible "bubble" they allocate so how through the vs and positive, it that occur. increase at more institutions "it's And question and does and just a continue for Then in How themselves stacking a floor.

But a is Yeah leverage never while vs to the I the that people easily and greatest it's responsibly

because has long what not themselves buyers first cause own for everyone's don't what can, people Always can sanity, gradual, so $300K. expectations is $105K, it to can't or as panic, breaking FOMO it's can leverage going stair-stepping pushing great positions, they will and that to convinced price illusion," everyone keep that there defy only in everything a they and double happening. been.

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Path carefully stair detractors they *en price panic bit happens.

The #Bitcoin building In and absurd realize, question the its then takes just the before masse.*

Otherwise utterly through all back governments just know down...

THEN breaks likely $500K, But just hits, won't everything responsible "bubble" they allocate so how through the vs and positive, it that occur. increase at more institutions "it's And question and does and just a continue for Then in How themselves stacking a floor.

But a is Yeah leverage never while vs to the I the that people easily and greatest it's responsibly

They’re missing the “stay humble” part.

The unwind will be breathtaking.

“Path or greatest pain”. One of the great certainties of bitcoin.

wait, so you think we go between $300k-$500k this cycle?

I'll bet you 1 million sats we stay under 300k

I have no idea. I just threw numbers out for the sake of example.

A big difference is that retail fools always popped their bubbles with leverage. They'd lever themselves up so far that they couldn't afford a 10% draw-down without losing everything. Bitcoin treasuries are not that. They just are now getting their boardrooms to all start to vote in favor of holding BTC instead of bonds and I don't see at what point they're going to start adding leverage to that.

I’m not talking really about Bitcoin treasury companies, I’m talking about the major markets and specifically major financial institutions and governments. These are institutions that not only participate in the most horrific and absurd kinds and degrees of leverage, but that literally think *they are immune to its consequences.*

That is a dangerous combination. And it’s not totally out of the realm of possibility that as major shifts of capital happen into Bitcoin that we witness even banks that are “too big to fail,” failing hard.