You're very optimistic or pessimistic depending on how you look at it. After the release of chatgpt in 2022(?) i see some improvements in new iterations but i think it's all going much slower than the wild claims i have heard and keep hearing. I have yet to see an llm code something more than, say, 100 lines of code before it breaks or forgets/skips important details.
I'm no expert and i think they're great tools but i have no problems programming without them at this point. I would say that it gives me an answer on a question i have much quicker than searching for it myself or it gives me good input to make my search more efficient because i can describe my problem for which i do not know the solution instead of guessing as to what the solution direction could or should be.
To me, this is all going way slower than i think a lot of people claimed and i have yet to see the first ai that can actually make a decent version of tetris with a single prompt.