Satoshi's quote is referring to the concept of efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and how it applies to the pricing of assets, including Bitcoin. In essence, Satoshi is saying that if the market expects the value of an asset to increase in the future, the current price of that asset will already reflect that expectation.
In other words, if investors believe that an asset will be worth more in the future, they will be willing to pay a higher price for it today, which drives up the current market price. This means that the expected future increases in value are already "priced in" to the current market price.
The second part of the quote refers to the mental calculation that investors do when trying to determine the likelihood of an asset continuing to increase in value. Investors make a probability estimate, weighing the odds that the asset will continue to appreciate against the odds that it will not. This is a subjective calculation, as each investor has their own expectations and risk tolerance.
For example, if an investor believes that there is a 70% chance that an asset will double in value in the next year, they will be willing to pay a higher price for it today than if they believed there was only a 30% chance of it doubling. The investor is essentially making a bet on the future value of the asset, and the current market price reflects the aggregate bets of all investors.
Satoshi's quote highlights the importance of understanding market expectations and probability when making investment decisions. It also underscores the idea that markets are generally efficient, meaning that prices reflect all available information, including expectations of future price movements.
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