Balance Sheet Imperialism

Here’s the framework: the U.S. government issues debt in the form of Treasuries. Tether buys that debt, then mints USDT stablecoins backed by those same securities. Those stablecoins are distributed globally, especially into regions with unstable currencies or limited access to dollars. The result? A fast, private back channel for exporting dollar liquidity around the world—without ever touching a bank, the Fed, or the SWIFT network.

This isn't some fringe mutation. Tether now holds more U.S. Treasuries than some major sovereign nations. At this scale, it's not just a stablecoin issuer—it's functioning as a kind of offshore, shadow dollar syndicate, converting U.S. debt production into digital dollars for global consumption.

Traders, businesses, and individuals in dollar-starved regions are using USDT as a substitute for traditional banking access. Every new issuance reinforces demand for U.S. Treasuries, helping finance U.S. deficits while strengthening the dollar’s role in international markets with almost no one

realizing it's actually U.S. Dollars they are using.

It’s a synthetic version of the U.S. dollar, circulating outside of U.S. jurisdiction, but still backed by U.S. debt.

U.S. Treasury Issues Debt

Tether Purchases Treasuries

Tether Mints USDT Stablecoins Against Treasuries

Global Distribution of USDT

Increased Demand for USDT

Tether Acquires More Treasuries

U.S. Treasury Issues More Debt

Rinse and Repeat

Whether this is sustainable or desirable is another conversation. But one thing is clear: Tether is playing a strategic role in extending the lifespan of the dollar itself. And it's going to work!

The real question becomes: What happens when (not if) Tether stops buying Treasuries and backs the entirety of already issued Tether with Bitcoin (and also, possibly, gold)?

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Discussion

Nice summary and a thoughtful question

I suspect that an agreement was reached where they can only back their token with treasuries.

It doesn't stop them acquiring Bitcoin with the coupon they get from the treasuries.

They can back with other stuff but this whole thing is morphing into what I presented here. Still, they will be buying bitcoin. That's for sure but in the meantime (10-25 years) they are going to export US Dept the likes of which no economist can fathom.

I like that it makes it easier for people to swap in & out of Bitcoin.

It makes accepting Bitcoin more attractive.

It's gotta be better than a CBDC right?

Brilliant discussion. If I may, I believe that CBDCs and Tether have the same functionalities in theory, but, the CBDCs being local have the potential to actually do some damage to the local population (eyes on the ground).

In contrast, I doubt that the USA agencies monitoring Tether give two shits about politicians, journalis, or other people of interest in other countries, nor can they (the world being big).

I’m not at all sure. Exporting the amount of debt I foresee is going to make really poor countries even poorer.

The whole fiat system is extractive.

Those poor countries are probably already deep in dollar denominated debt. Their citizens are already pretty screwed.

Individuals accessing a better fiat is probably a good thing for them, particularly if they can swap it out for Bitcoin easily.

"Cryptocurrencies will remain one of the most effective tools for circumventing sanctions, although USDT can be safely deleted from this list."

Cryptocurrencies are a scam. Only Bitcoin matters.

Also, if you think Tether is just going to "go away" then you are fooling yourself. It's not. I don't like it, but it's not.

That is a quote from a Russian politician after tether froze their accounts. Not me, reuters.

I am pointing out that Tether seized Russian money, THEN came to the US to make deals. They are what you say. They bent the knee.

The US could weaponize the dollar too far making it less attractive. I have always seen the stealing of funds as a asymetric risk to dollar hegemony.

I see XXI as the future bitcoin backed "tether2.0" play to counter their cruise missile risk

21, Strategy et. al. are all going to support Tether. Strike has been using Tether since it's inception.

This is a far more integrated thing than we imagine.. Best to keep our eyes on it.

I've listened to the tether replacing eurodollar narrative. It does seems a plausible play, but Europe would not just take this arrangement, she will retaliate somehow ( probably, See: bible )

Also, hate to mention it, but >

A bit out of topic… last week I listen to the read of your forest walker article by nostr:npub1h8nk2346qezka5cpm8jjh3yl5j88pf4ly2ptu7s6uu55wcfqy0wq36rpev is it written somewhere? I want to give it a look in more depth. TY ❤️

Your tether analysis continues to make a ton of sense to me

I’m hoping I’m wrong

Really does feel like it's gonna work. Tether actually is providing value to this unbanked population from what I understand. Jumping straight to a bitcoin standard may be unrealistic