True enough re China, not so sure about your depiction of the contemporary West.

Relatively predictable for us only if we grew up here and if we keep fingers on the pulse. (Who honestly foresaw "sexual orientation" and "gender equality" getting cancelled and replaced?). The West today is intensely ideologically-driven, and governed capriciously and elitely.

If you're NOT building your business in a legally grey area, the ceiling is pretty low thanks to cronyism and regulation.

American milage may very, at least for some states...

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>If you're NOT building your business in a legally grey area, the ceiling is pretty low thanks to cronyism and regulation.

Makes it harder but I assure you its very much possible to make good money even in established sectors. Grey areas are tempting if you have a high time pref and aren't properly appraising risk (there is no way to even somewhat accurately appraise political risk but it's usually higher than you think)

You must be in the USA. Here, established sectors are regulated to within an inch of their lives, and nothing new is contemplated without a government grant...