You are both correct and wrong all at the same time.
Like bitcoin, Bitcoin transactions represent absolute scarcity. Block space will fill up and transaction fees will increase long before the block reward is negligible.
At the moment nation states are scrambling to both attract and secure Bitcoin mining capacity… they are securing their ability to transact on the base layer.
These things take time… things set in motion today take time to manifest in the observable universe… like changing direction in a large ship… levers are pushed and pulled long before we see the ship starting to turn.
So, yes you are correct, there could be an incentive there from large bag holders but no you are incorrect as the mempool will be beyond capacity and transaction fees will increase to reflect a player’s desire to settle a transaction.
Thy enemy of thy enemy is thy friend. Bitcoin/Bitcoin is the enemy of the US dollar, USD is thy enemy of every other nation state on the planet. Why do you think we see BRICS forming and growing… has no one noticed, they are an alliance of enemies? (With a common enemy). Has anyone noticed, they have recently started settling international trade in BTC?
