Well mainly what nostr:npub16cpe069rjz6pm5t42xcyhcn66f5rr04k64df3g03fk2wctlrlhsqycedcd just said. Short-term predictions simply do not work for things like #bitcoin. Long-term dynamics is what matters and this is already well understood (halvings, bull markets, diminishing returns in each cycle, etc.). If short-term predictions were possible, big investors would hire the best AI and math experts to do those predictions. But this is not happening.

Weather forecasts are a good analogy here. We can predict weather changes in the next few hours almost perfectly. A day or two ahead - hard but doable. A weak ahead - nearly impossible. The problem is not our models (they are extremely good). The problem is the butterfly effect: a tiny change now can cause huge volatility in the future.

Same thing with #bitcoin. You can probably guess what will happen today or tomorrow, but there’s too many factors to make a confident statement about what will happen by the end of the year. We only know that there will be a halving soon, we know that *most likely* there will be a strong price increase and we know that *most likely* the expected return will be smaller than in the previous cycle.