If the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is announced on Monday alongside other executive orders, it’ll come across as the new administration not being serious about it. If you truly are, why announce it before buying Bitcoin? Why give other nations the first-mover advantage?
Discussion
I’m guessing they announce an “SBR” on Monday in which they vow not to sell any of currently held BTC. Then they begin to buy and accumulate BTC over the coming months before the congressional SBR goes through.
No, this is not how it should work. You would silently start buying from the Day 1 without moving the market upside significantly in a certain period of time. Depending on the amount of Bitcoin reserve that you're trying to build, it should take months if not years. This is the correct playbook in a nutshell if they're really serious about it.
Yes I agree completely
How else would Trump have manipulated the entire industry to vote for him?
FEAR AND GREED
They might announce, and the be like, the CIA has been secretly building this reserve since Gavin went there in 2010 and the US already has 4M bitcoins
The idea has been floated for a while. Other nations could have already done it.
True, Trump hasn’t signed anything, but it’s probably the usual trial balloon
Wouldn’t it initially be to ensure we don’t sell any of the existing balance first? And then do silent exec order to add to position over time without letting everyone know
nostr:npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs had a great take on the game theory of this on recent podcast too
When you are the administration, this already guarantees that the existing balance won’t be sold. There are countless ways to enforce this quietly without issuing an EO. Telegraphing it with an executive order on Day 1 significantly moves up the market, which erodes your first-mover advantage. I don’t understand this playbook.
I agree, stealth accumulation would make the most economic sense especially since other jurisdictions have been likely considering the same. But a public announcement of SBR credentializes #bitcoin in a way I personally never thought was imaginable until recently which is pretty exciting!
In the short term, sure, it’s great for all of us... let’s ride the wave and pump our bags. but in the long run, i would’ve approached this more strategically. like you said, a stealth accumulation would’ve been the smarter play. i still think there are some sharp ppl there who would advise a better approach.